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Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the frame work of AQMEII3

机译：由AQMEII3框架中的多模型集合计算得出的空气污染对欧洲和美国人类健康的影响的评估和经济评估

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The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (U.S.) for the year 2010 is modelled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). This is the first study known to use a common health assessment approach across the two continents. The modelled surface concentrations of O, CO, SO and PM from each model are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and East Asia. Health impacts estimated by different models can vary up to a factor of three in Europe (twelve models) and the United States (three models). In Europe, the multi-model mean number of premature deaths is calculated to be 414 000 while in the U.S., it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. In order to estimate the impact of biases coming from each model, two multi-model ensembles were produced, the first attributing an equal weight to each member of the ensemble, and the second where the subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step. The latter results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, thus giving significantly higher mortality estimates compared to available literature. This is mostly due to a 27 % increase in the domain mean PM levels, along with a slight increase in O by ~ 1 %. Over the U.S., the mean PM and O levels decrease by 11 % and 2 %, respectively, when the optimal ensemble mean is used, leading to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ~ 11 %. These differences encourage the use of optimal-reduced multi-model ensembles over traditional all model-mean ensembles, in particular for policy applications. Finally, the role of domestic versus foreign emission sources on the related health impacts is investigated using the 20 % emission reduction scenarios applied over the source regions as defined in the frame of HTAP2. The differences are calculated based on the models that are common in the basic multi-model ensemble and the perturbation scenarios, resulting in five models in Europe and all three models in the U.S. A 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions avoids 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths in Europe and the U.S., respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American emissions foreign emissions avoids ~ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 premature deaths in the U.S. A 20 % decrease of emissions within the European source region avoids 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the East Asian emission by 20 % avoids ~ 2000 premature deaths in the U.S. These results show that the domestic emissions make the largest impacts on premature death, while foreign sources make a minor contributing to adverse impacts of air pollution.
机译：空气污染对人体健康的影响以及相关的外部成本在欧美（美国）在2010年第三季度的空气质量建模评估框架内由区域模型的多模型集合建模国际倡议（AQMEII3）。这是已知的在两大洲使用通用健康评估方法的第一项研究。每个模型的模型化O，CO，SO和PM的表面浓度都用作空气污染经济评估（EVA）系统的输入，以计算由此产生的健康影响和相关的外部成本。除了进行基本案例模拟外，还进行了更多的运行，从而在欧洲，北美和东亚的全球和区域内实现了20 %%的减排。在欧洲（十二个模型）和美国（三个模型）中，不同模型估计的健康影响可能相差多达三倍。在欧洲，与先前的全球和区域研究一致，在欧洲，多模型平均过早死亡人数经计算为414 000，而在美国，估计为160 000。为了估算来自每个模型的偏差的影响，产生了两个多模型集合，第一个集合对集合的每个成员都赋予相等的权重，第二个集合产生的模型子集与每个时间步的地面观测。在欧洲，后者导致对健康的影响增加了30％以上，因此与现有文献相比，死亡率估计高得多。这主要是由于域平均PM含量增加了27％，而O则略微增加了约1％。在美国，使用最佳总体平均水平时，平均PM和O水平分别降低11％和2％，导致计算出的健康影响降低约11％。这些差异鼓励在传统的所有模型均值集合上使用最优缩减的多模型集合，尤其是对于策略应用。最后，使用HTAP2框架所定义的适用于源区域的20％减排情景，研究了国内和国外排放源在相关健康影响中的作用。差异是根据基本的多模型合奏中常见的模型和摄动场景计算得出的，从而导致欧洲有五个模型和美国的所有三个模型产生的全球人为排放量减少了20％，从而避免了54 000和27 500在欧洲和美国过早死亡。北美排放量减少20％，国外排放量可避免约1000例欧洲过早死亡，而美国则减少25 000例过早死亡。欧洲排放源地区减少20％的排放量可避免47,000例欧洲过早死亡。将东亚排放量减少20％可以在美国避免约2000例过早死亡。这些结果表明，国内排放量对过早死亡的影响最大，而外国来源对空气污染的不利影响较小。

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